If you’re involved in policy, then the unemployment rate is a key indicator of economic health. If you’re forecasting economic trends, then the same is true. But for the average job-seeker, this rate is little more than a distraction.
People are getting canned at increasing rates. If you’re reading this blog, then you already know that. We’re also in a recession, by the way, in case you’ve been living in a cave for the last six months. That’s about all the context you need in order to understand the level of competition in the job markets and to set realistic expectations.
Economic indicators, and especially the unemployment rate, are poor representations of individual opportunity. The stock of unemployed people is rising, and this is concerning to policymakers. But this is a $14+ trillion economy, and the labor markets don’t simply freeze in a recession. Businesses open and close, industries expand and contract, jobs get created and destroyed, positions get filled and vacated; the economy, and by proxy the job market, is always in motion. This motion ensures a flow of opportunities for individuals in all times. It just takes more time, more effort, more tact, and more luck to make it happen when that stock of opportunities wanes.
In addition, few people know how to interpret the unemployment rate.
First, less is not always better. Excess labor cools an expanding economy and prevents inflation, helping the economy to grow at a healthy clip. Economists disagree about where the break point is, but the “target” or “natural” rate of unemployment is probably somewhere north of 5 percent.
Second, the unemployment rate is a trailing indicator. This means that unemployment will continue to rise for a quarter or so after the broader economy has already turned around.
Lastly, the figure only counts people who are actively looking for work. Discouraged or retired workers do not count. As people give up, reignite a job search, or return from retirement, the unemployment rate will change. It’s important to realize that layoffs are not the only determinant.
Now that you know how to interpret the unemployment rate, you can feel educated when you ignore the latest release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics this Friday. If you’re looking for a distraction, watch Chris and me on Fox Business News during the lunch hour.














